Aaron Nesmith
2026-27 projection
Built from his last three seasons, age and role. It is replaced by real stats after the first game.
FG 45.7% · FT 83.4% · TOV 1.1 · Known injury (Hamstring): games already reduced
- 2025-26 (45 GP), 2024-25 (45 GP), 2023-24 (72 GP) — weighted 3/2/1.
- Rates regressed 300 min toward the F average.
- Age 26 at season start → +1% production.
- Availability 63% of games → 52 GP, 27.6 MPG.
Season at a glance
2025-26 · every team game, coloured by FP. Hatched squares are games he missed (37).
Floor & ceiling
45 games · every dot is one game. Shaded: where the middle half of F players average.
Boom games (≥ 1.25× his average): 24.4% · Bust games (≤ 0.75×): 28.9%
Role & minutes
Moved to the bench on Dec 27 · Into the starting five on Jan 2. Played games only; hover to read a game in both panels.
Situations
Fantasy points per game versus his own average. Bars show the middle half of games; faded rows have fewer than 4 games.
Season average: ±0.0
Playing style
2025-26 · how he plays versus other Fs with 20+ games. P-values are approximate percentiles; neither end is better or worse, it is style.
Career arc
Production and availability by season. Click a season to open it above.
Fantasy points per game
Games played
When Aaron sits
Teammates' fantasy points per game when Aaron Nesmith is out versus in. Only teammates with 5+ games each way; the small number is games without him.
Similar players
Closest style in 2025-26: per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defence, threes and turnovers, plus shooting percentages. 100% would be an identical profile.
SAC · PF · 8.9 FP/G · alike in steals and 3-point volume
- Max Christie91%
DAL · SG · 20.7 FP/G · alike in steals and FT%
- AJ Green89%
MIL · SG · 17.4 FP/G · alike in steals and 3-point volume
- Sam Hauser86%
BOS · SF · 17.9 FP/G · alike in steals and 3-point volume
- Noah Clowney86%
BKN · SF · 22.4 FP/G · alike in FG% and playmaking
- Tre Johnson85%
WAS · SG · 19.6 FP/G · alike in steals and 3-point volume
2026-27 market
ESPN drafts him around pick 140.8, 15 spots higher than his #156 finish in 2025-26: the board is paying for more than he delivered.