Marvin Bagley III
2026-27 projection
Built from his last three seasons, age and role. It is replaced by real stats after the first game.
FG 59.5% · FT 68.4% · TOV 0.9
- 2025-26 (60 GP), 2024-25 (31 GP), 2023-24 (50 GP) — weighted 3/2/1.
- Rates regressed 300 min toward the C average.
- Age 27 at season start → +1% production.
- 2024-25 (31 GP) treated as a one-off injury season — counted at the availability of the other seasons (67%).
Season at a glance
2025-26 · every team game, coloured by FP. Hatched squares are games he missed (20).
Floor & ceiling
60 games · every dot is one game. Shaded: where the middle half of C players average.
Boom games (≥ 1.25× his average): 26.7% · Bust games (≤ 0.75×): 31.7%
Role & minutes
Into the starting five on Nov 19 · Moved to the bench on Dec 18. Played games only; hover to read a game in both panels.
Situations
Fantasy points per game versus his own average. Bars show the middle half of games; faded rows have fewer than 4 games.
Season average: ±0.0
Playing style
2025-26 · how he plays versus other Cs with 20+ games. P-values are approximate percentiles; neither end is better or worse, it is style.
Career arc
Production and availability by season. Click a season to open it above.
Fantasy points per game
Games played
When Marvin sits
Teammates' fantasy points per game when Marvin Bagley III is out versus in. Only teammates with 5+ games each way; the small number is games without him.
Similar players
Closest style in 2025-26: per-36 scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defence, threes and turnovers, plus shooting percentages. 100% would be an identical profile.
WAS · C · 26.7 FP/G · alike in FG% and 3-point volume
- Rudy Gobert95%
MIN · C · 33.0 FP/G · alike in FG% and rebounding
CLE · C · 32.4 FP/G · alike in FG% and rebounding
BOS · C · 28.1 FP/G · alike in FG% and rebounding
- Ivica Zubac92%
IND · C · 31.9 FP/G · alike in rebounding and FG%
DAL · C · 24.3 FP/G · alike in FG% and rebounding
2026-27 market
ESPN drafts him around pick 140.3, 31 spots higher than his #171 finish in 2025-26: the board is paying for more than he delivered.